Sports

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, ARKANSAS

By Jay Lupo/OF THE COMMERCIAL STAFF
Monday, November 19, 2007 10:26 AM CST

Be careful what you wish for, because one day you just might get it.

This is neither an endorsement nor indictment of Arkansas head football coach Houston Nutt. With all the controversy swirling about Nutt’s future in Fayetteville, it’s simply a relevant topic.

It’s a fact that a high percentage of the Arkansas fan base wants Nutt, a Little Rock native and the 10th-year coach of the Razorbacks, gone. Many fans have wanted him gone for years. Many still support him. But the fan base is extremely divided, and that’s not debatable.

What is debatable is whether or not Arkansas is better off with or without the conservative, but respected head coach.

I don’t have the answer to that question. So I guess it’s best to look at the facts.

To me, it’s a fact that Arkansas, in terms of football, will most often be looking up at LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. Certainly not every year, and in most years the Hogs should finish ahead of some of these schools, but it’s going to be tough to bring anybody to Fayetteville that consistently beats those six schools.

Arkansas is a hard job. It’s not LSU. It’s in a brutal conference, the in-state recruiting isn’t comparable to nor is the athletic budget as big as most of the aforementioned six schools. In my opinion, realistic expectations for the football program should be seven or eight wins every year, a double-digit-win season every four years and an SEC championship once every 8-10 years.

Nutt hasn’t quite done that, but he’s been pretty close. During his 10 seasons, the Razorbacks have won or shared five SEC Western Division titles, made it to the conference title game twice and, at the completion of this season, will have played in eight bowl games. Nutt is 5-5 against Auburn, 5-5 against Alabama, 7-3 against South Carolina, 9-1 against Mississippi State, 7-3 against Ole Miss and 3-6 against LSU.

Nutt’s also 74-48 (61 percent) during his time at Arkansas. No matter what happens the rest of the way in 2007, for his 10-year tenure, Nutt’s team will average more than seven victories a season and have a .500 or better winning percentage against four of their five SEC West opponents and a .700 winning percentage against their constant opponent from the East, South Carolina.

Looking at that, it’s easy to see why some fans want to keep him.

On the other hand, Nutt’s teams haven’t won an SEC title and are just 2-5 in bowl games. His ultra-conservative style isn’t crowd-pleasing by any stretch of the imagination. Arkansas has blown some very winnable games in the last four seasons where it appears it was outcoached. And lately, Nutt’s teams and the coach himself have generated a ton of bad publicity and drama off the field.

When you look at this, it’s apparent that those who want him out have their reasons. As a lifelong Arkansas fan and graduate of the university, this is the question that really gets me: If Nutt is fired or leaves, who’s Arkansas going to hire?

People wanting Nutt out and a “name coach” in are probably in need of a reality check. When former Arkansas basketball coach Stan Heath was fired last April, the job was offered to multiple “name guys.” None of them accepted, and Arkansas had to hire what was rumored to be its seventh choice in John Pelphrey, a young up-and-comer with a great basketball pedigree.

That’s more than likely what would happen should Nutt leave or get fired after this season. If Arkansas’ hoops program, which was nationally competitive year in and year out not that long ago, can’t lure a big name to Fayetteville, than the football program isn’t likely to, either.

Butch Davis, a former Razorback player whose parents live in Northwest Arkansas, appears to be the only “name” guy out there that Arkansas could realistically go after. Davis, the former Miami and Cleveland Browns coach, is about to complete his first year at North Carolina, however, and isn’t likely to jump ship one year in, even if a job at his alma mater opens up.

So it’s probable Arkansas would have to higher a relatively young coach from a smaller school or a coordinator from a larger school.

When you do that, there’s always risk involved. Just ask Ole Miss, which canned David Cutcliffe in 2004 to hire Southern California defensive line coach Ed Orgeron, who’s just 10-23 in three seasons in Oxford, Miss. The Rebels are currently the SEC’s worst team at 3-7 overall and 0-7 inside the conference. Cutcliffe coached the Rebels from 1999-2004, and won at least seven games in five of his six seasons, including a 10-win campaign in 2003. He had 43 wins in six years, which equates to exactly seven wins per season.

Apparently, that wasn’t good enough for Ole Miss. Now, Orgeron’s job is in serious jeopardy and it looks like the Rebels might have to fire him and start completely over with a new coach. If that’s the case, the program is far worse than it was when Cutcliffe got ... well, “Cutcliffed.”

The timing of letting Nutt go may not be good, either.

Like any offseason, coaches will retire, leave for better jobs or get fired. Big jobs could and almost always do come open. Michigan’s Lloyd Carr is retiring. What if Les Miles, the LSU head coach and former Wolverine, leaves the bayou to go to Ann Arbor, Mich.? LSU will be open, and that’s a goldmine job now. And this Tommy Tuberville to Texas A&M thing could have legs, too. The Auburn head coach from Camden was a defensive coordinator for the Aggies on his way up the coaching ladder.

That’s unlikely to happen, but it’s not impossible, either. That means Auburn and LSU, two bigger programs in the same division as Arkansas, could be looking for new coaches, too.

Who do you think will get the best coach? I’ve got a hint — it’s not Arkansas.

No matter who’s coaching the Razorbacks, who will likely lose most of their best players after this season, in 2008, it’s going to be a rebuilding year. If Nutt does leave and Arkansas hires a new, relatively unaccomplished up-and-comer, the Razorbacks could be looking at several years of rebuilding. Again, see Ole Miss or Nebraska.

So the question that needs to be asked is this: Is Arkansas’ football program under Nutt in such a desperate state that it’s worth setting the whole thing back two, three, four or maybe even five years to get rid of him?

I’ll let you be the judge of that.

But this piece should serve notice. Be careful what you wish for. Because you just might get it one day.